Market Update with Avi Gilburt (2024)

The Other Side Of The Coin

In my last update, I failed to provide you with the alternative perspective. And, due to the strength of the drop off today’s high, I wanted to send out another note just preparing you for an alternative.Again, I want to reiterate that the more bullish near term outcome is my primary, as long as we hold yesterday’s low in SPX and NQ. However, in the event those break, then the potential for the b-wave top as being in place is what I will likely shift towards, and is now my alternative.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Wave 5 In Progress

Yesterday afternoon, before the market spiked down to its lows, I narrowed my support box in an alert I sent out to the full-time members:“I am going to narrow down our micro support up here to the box as shown. But, as long as we hold the 5568SPX region, which is the w=y, then I am looking directly higher for wave 5. 5536SPX is the bottom of this support box, and we would need to take that support out resoundingly for me to reconsider one more push higher in this structure for the [c] wave rally.

by Avi Gilburt - 3 days ago

Market Turns Down But Still Over Support For Now

Today we saw the market turn lower and poke under the low that was struck on 8/22. This is giving us enough waves to consider the wave 4 completed ready to push to another higher high to finish off the larger degree pattern. Support still resides a bit lower from here so we still can see a move a bit deeper into that support zone before a bottom is seen. As long as we are over that support zone however another higher high would look best on to finish off this move. Should we see a sustained break of that zone below it would however open the door for a larger top to be in place.

by Mike Golembesky - 4 days ago

Could Be Stuck Between Resistance And Support For A Little Bit

First, I want to state affirmatively that there is nothing I am seeing at this time that changes my bigger picture as we look to the end of 2024.With that being said, I am going to note that the pictures on the micro-structure for GDX, NEM, silver and gold are slightly different but can begin to align in the coming week or two. So, let’s discuss each individually.Let’s start with NEM. With the higher high struck yesterday, I can now count a completed 5 waves for wave [i] of iii of 3. This means that the next time we take out this week’s high, it “could” be the start of wave [iii] of iii of 3.

by Avi Gilburt - 4 days ago

Just Meandering Now - Market Analysis for Aug 27th, 2024

As I have been outlining over the past several days, the SPX is still coloring between the lines, and not confirming whether the 4th wave has indeed completed. And, at this point in time, if it has not completed, then we have moved into a much more complex w-x-y pattern. Now, of course, if we take out yesterday’s high, then I believe it confirms the ending diagonal path in wave 5. However, as long as we remain below the high struck yesterday, then the more complex structure for wave 4 remains alive and well.When we look over at the NQ, we have a minimum number of waves in place to consider its wave 4 complete.

by Avi Gilburt - 5 days ago

Is 4 Done?

Over the weekend, I was questioning whether wave 4 was done on the 5-minute SPX chart. And, based upon today’s action, I am leaning towards it not being done.Most specifically, today’s we topped out on what seems to be a 3-wave rally. So, I am viewing that as the b-wave of wave 4. We have since seen what looks like a 5-wave decline in the SPX off the high. Therefore, I have to assume that we have begun the c-wave down. At the time of my writing this, I don’t think I have enough information to determine how deep this c-wave will take us.

by Avi Gilburt - 6 days ago

Market Finally Breaks Upper Support

After trading in a very tight range all week we finally saw the market break the upper support zone giving us the initial signal that we have put in at least a local top the third wave. We are still trading over the support for the potential fourth wave.So we will need to see how the market reacts over the course of the next several trading sessions in regards to both price and structure to help guide us as to whether we are going to see this push higher once again before any significant top is seen or if the market has other intentions to see a larger degree top sooner rather than later.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Not Much To Add

I wish I had some amazing insights to provide to you beyond what we have been saying of late, but I think that anyone who has been following along for the last few weeks/months is probably as informed about where we are as I. But, I will do a quick review.The most important thing that happened this past week is the potential for NEM/GDX to be filling out their next 5-wave rally structure, which would mean that there are no larger 2nd waves yet to complete – assuming we complete the 4th and 5th waves as presented on the various charts.

by Avi Gilburt - 1 week ago

Market Sees Another Tight Range While Holding Over Support

Today we saw the market move slightly over the previous high only to be quickly rejected lower. That move lower however did not last long either and we spent the rest of the day consolidating near the highs but over support. So with the market trading in a very tight range and still over even upper support at the time of this writing the parameters that I have laid out over the past several days remain for the most part the same.As I noted yesterday we are still very overbought on the smaller timeframes and a pullback for at least a fourth wave should certainly be in the cards in the not-too-distant future.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

Market Grinds Sideways As Support Has Yet To Break

Today we saw the market open flat and then move slightly lower. That move lower did however hold over even the uppermost support and then we continued to grind sideways through the rest of the day.That initial move lower is also counting better as three waves rather than five waves. So with the hold over support and an initial five wave move to the downside we still do not have any confirmation that we have indeed put in a larger degree top just yet.We are still very overbought on the smaller timeframes and a pullback for at least a fourth wave should certainly be in the cards in the not-too-distant future.

by Mike Golembesky - 1 week ago

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